Market Probabilities

Are we in a bull market yet? Many friends have asked me this question lately.
If you make a couple of successful trades, people will, through that connotation, assume that you also know what’s next. Remember that no one knows what tomorrow will bring. So we can talk about probabilities and best guesses.

My best guess is that we are in the early stages of the new bull run. Vibes are back. Rugging founders are back from their mental health breaks. Normie friends start asking me about crypto again.

Again, I do not know what’s next and anyone telling you that should be muted and ignored. We might see one more price correction for Bitcoin dragging prices down to what I call buy zone and max pain. If we reach those levels, I am a buyer. If we do not reach those levels I already hodl a bag.

My best advice to you is to always stay liquid. When I say hold reserves like a central bank does, I don’t mean keeping 100% of your net worth parked in stables or high yield protocols. True liquidity means having liquid cash buffers off chain, uncorrelated hard assets, and the discipline to let opportunities pass without feeling fomo. As my mother always told me, “Even a monkey can level up; real character shows when life forces you to level down.”

It is very tempting to throw more money at a token, but you will eventually run out of cash. Meaning you might not be able to invest in the next runner. And being overinvested is horrible for your mental health. If a drawdown stresses your living baseline or peace of mind, you aren’t trading, you’re gambling. My father found genuine joy in living simply rather than buying unnecessary flexes; money is a tool for freedom and runway, not just accumulated tokens.

Trading on chain and hunting thesis driven setups requires extreme mental clarity. The moment you start overtrading out of boredom or frustration, step away from the screen. For me, that means closing the laptop, going for an outdoor run along the coast, or getting on the court for a few sets of tennis or padel or simply, cuddling with my dog. You make your worst financial decisions when your brain is fried and your screen time hits 14 hours.

Control your emotions, establish rules and stick to them. So irrespective of where we are at in the market or if even a black swan event hits, you do not get knocked out. Hold reserves like a central bank does. Create or join your small table, stay liquid, and keep playing the long game. You are your own bank.

For readers tracking high stakes diplomatic meetings that serve as major media catalysts, this news report covers President Xi Jinping’s upcoming US summit which aligns with the media timing mentioned in your panda thesis section.