Conviction can become greed very quickly

Crypto loves stories about conviction.

We remember the guy who held Bitcoin for ten years, the person who bought SOL after FTX and refused to sell, or the wallet that turned a tiny memecoin position into millions. We don’t remember the thousands of people who also had “conviction” in things that went to zero.

The dangerous part is that conviction becomes strongest after you’ve already been right.

Imagine buying something at $10M and watching it reach $100M. You were right by almost any reasonable standard, but instead of making you more cautious, that success can make you even more attached to the thesis. If you were right about $100M, why not $500M? Why not $1B?

This is how huge winners turn into roundtrips.

I don’t think conviction means refusing to sell. Conviction should allow you to keep part of a position through volatility while the thesis is still intact. It shouldn’t require you to risk every dollar of profit just to prove that you believe.

There’s no prize for being the last holder.