Micro vs. Macro: where are we in the cycle?

Despite short term volatility and market liquidations, taking a step back reveals the broader structural landscape.

Editor’s Note: Feature the key macro structural outlook points here, approaching value zones in the four year cycle, navigating selective liquidity constraints, and adding risk exposure when crowd sentiment hits local despair.

No matter how much wealth an investor accumulates, the fundamental struggle never changes: managing the psychological friction of capital allocation. The temptation to check charts every couple minutes, panic during liquidations, or doubt a systematic plan affects every tier of net worth. We all make mistakes. You have to make sure your own mistakes, and those of others, allow you to survive at least another day. Better a week. Much better a month.

Key Takeaways for the Week

Check your chart and think about your positions. Just think for a bit.

Form a decision. What action do you need to take? Than take it.

Focus on the simple things. Keep track of good and bad callers.

When macro changes, your thesis needs to change.

I will always remember this quote from the peak nft cycle. Someone asked a punk whale why he sold his nft that he vouched to never sell. The answer was: geopolitics. I think the Russian attack on Ukraine had started the same day. I am a macro guy. I felt he was right. I did not sell.

I thought my thesis > macro. But macro is always >>>.

At the end of the day, stick to your rules. One of my rules is to stick to my rules. Greed gives you endless ways to lose your money, which is why preserving your capital will always be far more important than multiplying it. And people capable of reducing your capital abound compared to those capable of multiplying it. Try to stick close to the ladder and avoid sharlatans and gurus promising you outsized, fast returns.

That’s all I had in mind for this edition. I hope you enjoyed reading it. I want to thank Phantom, as usual, for sponsoring our newsletter and allowing us to express ourselves freely and without any limitations.